It’s been a season of shifting tides in the housing market, with price per square foot dropping year-over-year in 36 out of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas by mid-third quarter. Nationwide, we’ve seen that average price per square foot is down about 2% from last year—the tenth consecutive month this national figure has softened. As Q3 wound down, momentum slowed further, with many sellers opting to adjust their asking prices more aggressively to meet buyers where they are. High mortgage rates continue to test affordability, especially in those markets that saw rapid gains during the pandemic. In many of these boom-era regions, we’re witnessing a partial return of those pandemic price spikes, in part because inventory is now above pre-pandemic levels. Having spent decades navigating changing markets—from Lake Tahoe’s seasonal shifts to national trends—I know how important it is to stay focused and nimble, whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on these evolving dynamics.
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Why Exterior Upgrades are a Smart Investment for Homeowners
After 26 years working with Lake Tahoe properties—where every detail matters—I've learned that exterior upgrades aren’t just about looks. Upgrades like stone veneer, new garage doors, fresh siding, or a welcoming front door can deliver more than 200% ROI. They elevate curb appeal, improve energy efficiency, and add a layer of security—crucial features whether you’re preparing to list or settling in for the long haul. I’ve seen firsthand how the right outdoor improvements can transform a property’s value and make it stand out in this unique mountain market. In Lake Tahoe, maximizing your home’s first impression goes a long way.
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New listings hit a four-year high
We’re seeing a notable surge in new listings across the US housing market—up 8%, the highest since August 2022. That’s more inventory than we’ve had in years, bringing active listings closer to a balanced level. However, pending sales have dipped, and mortgage rates are holding at 6.66%, which is still putting real pressure on affordability, even as median prices inch up by 2.2%. Having spent over 40 years living and working in Lake Tahoe, I’ve watched our market ride out so many cycles like this—and I know firsthand how timing and local know-how make all the difference. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how these national shifts play out locally is key. After all, every market—especially one as unique as Lake Tahoe—has its own rhythm.
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Experts Share Insights on Future Mortgage Rate Trends
There’s a lot of talk right now about where mortgage rates are headed—especially with predictions for 2026 suggesting 30-year fixed rates could land around 6.7% to 6.9%. Having navigated Lake Tahoe’s real estate market for over 40 years, I’ve seen firsthand how rates can shift depending on your credit, financial situation, and even your location. If the Fed raises rates, we could see them climb, but if inflation stays under control, there’s a chance they’ll ease up. I always remind buyers: taking steps to improve your credit can make a real difference in the rate you’re offered. In a market as unique as ours, being prepared helps you make the most of every opportunity—no matter where rates land.
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The Next Building Boom Could Reset Housing
Having spent over 40 years in Lake Tahoe and 26 years guiding clients through the ins and outs of mountain real estate, I’ve seen housing trends come and go. But beneath the cyclical headlines, there’s been a persistent story: a long-standing shortage of supply that’s driven up Real Estate values across the country. If the next building boom truly takes off, it could be the much-needed reset for our housing market. As someone who’s helped buyers and sellers navigate tight inventories—and even closed a $4.5M holiday listing when others doubted it was possible—I know how impactful new construction can be. For those thinking about Tahoe’s future, it’s worth watching how this shift could open new possibilities for buyers and communities alike.
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U.S. Housing Market Rebalances Slowly
Watching the U.S. housing market shift is always a lesson in patience and timing—a bit like waiting out a Tahoe storm before bluebird skies return. Right now, active inventory is up about 4% year over year across the nation, though that growth has slowed for the first time in five weeks. For buyers, this hints at a gentle rebalancing—opportunity without a sudden flood of new listings. Homes are spending an average of 61 days on the market, steady compared to last year and reflecting the usual late-Q3 pace after a brisker spring and early summer. New listings are down about 1% yearly, nearly matching 2025 levels, as affordability remains top-of-mind for many—some buyers are holding back, and some sellers are weighing the risks of jumping in. The median listing price sits at $419,000 (down roughly 1% year over year), and price per square foot has edged down to $222, its lowest since early 2026. These subtle changes, along with higher mortgage rates, are nudging conditions toward buyers, but the national market still feels more like a slow drift than a sudden turn. My decades in Tahoe real estate have taught me that understanding these undercurrents is key—whether you’re buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the big picture.
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More Homes Hit the Market as Demand Cools
With national housing inventory on the rise—new listings up 0.4% and total homes for sale rising 0.5% in the four weeks ending August 23—we’re seeing the highest supply levels since early Q2. Yet, even as more options open up, pending home sales dipped 1.1% to a six-month low, with high housing costs keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. The median sale price now sits just above $400K, up 1.9% from last year, and mortgage rates are hovering near 7%, close to a 13-month high.
What does this mean for those searching for a special place—like a Tahoe retreat or a mountain home? Buyers are finding themselves with more leverage: more homes to choose from, and more room to negotiate on price or concessions, especially for properties that have been listed for a few weeks. Sellers who price realistically, rather than chasing last year’s numbers, are seeing the best results. Having spent over 40 years here and helped clients navigate shifting markets for more than two decades, I’ve seen firsthand how timing and local insight can make all the difference in getting the right deal—on both sides of the transaction.
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Buy and Sell a Home Simultaneously: Strategies for Success
Navigating the process of buying and selling a home at the same time takes both strategy and adaptability—something I’ve learned firsthand after decades in Lake Tahoe real estate. Selling first can clarify your next move and budget, though it sometimes means arranging a short-term place to stay. On the other hand, buying before you sell offers more time to find the right fit, but it may mean juggling two mortgages for a while. Contingent offers can help manage the risk, but they’re not always every seller’s favorite. In my 26 years helping clients move in and out of these mountains—even during the toughest seasons—one thing is clear: a thoughtful plan and flexible mindset make all the difference.
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Buyers Gain Unique Opportunities Amid Growing Inventory
Not often do buyers find themselves with the upper hand in real estate, but that’s exactly what we’re seeing now as inventory climbs and new listings hit the market. Pending home sales across the US just fell to a six-month low, which has really shifted the negotiation table. The median home price is up 1.9%, now at $400,649, and yes, higher mortgage rates are making those monthly payments feel hefty. But it’s not all uphill—some markets are seeing price drops and more sellers are open to concessions. Having spent 40 years in Lake Tahoe and 26 years as a Realtor, I know how rare these windows can be. Whether you’re relocating or looking for a mountain retreat, understanding these shifts can make all the difference when you’re ready to buy or sell in our unique community.
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New Listings Rise as Summer Comes to a Close
As we approach the end of summer, I’m keeping a close eye on the shifts we’re seeing in the housing market. New U.S. home listings have ticked up by 1.2%, reaching a three-month high. Meanwhile, pending sales have slowed, dipping 1.3% to their lowest point since March. Even with a 1.8% increase in median sale price year over year, the median asking price has edged down by 0.1%—all against the backdrop of higher mortgage rates and some economic uncertainty. After decades in Lake Tahoe real estate, I know firsthand how dynamic the market can be this time of year. For both buyers looking for opportunity and sellers considering their next move, understanding these shifts is key—especially in a place as special as Tahoe.
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